Using predicted species responses to climate change to aid in conservation planning
Lawler, J.L. and Hepinstall-Cymerman, J. 2010. Conservation planning in a changing climate: assessing the impacts of potential range shifts on a reserve network. Pp. 325-348 in S. Trombulak and R. Baldwin, eds. Landscape-scale Conservation Planning. (Peer Reviewed)
Trombulak, S.C., R.F. Baldwin, J.J. Lawler, J. Cymerman-Hepinstall, and M.G. Anderson. 2012 . The Northern Appalachian/Acadian Ecoregion, North America. J.A. Hilty, C.C. Chester, and M.S. Cross, eds. Climate and Conservation: Landscape and Seascape Science, Planning, and Action. Island Press.
Black-throated blue warbler population demographics in the southern Appalachians
Joanna Hatt's research focused on the consequences of climate change for fledgling survival of black-throated blue Warbler(Dendroica caerulescens) in the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, located in North Carolina. She was particularly interested in declining populations and the changing distribution of this species. The goal of her research was to garner information which would aid in determining optimal conservation strategies for at-risk populations. She analyzed how global climate change potentially alters the timing of the emergence of larval insects, a prey-base for Black-throated blue warblers and other bird species.
Heather Abernathy's research analyzed the interactions between regional variation in precipitation and land cover effects on the distributions and abundances of salamanders and migratory birds in the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory as well. Her goal was to monitor the effects of land use history, precipitation, and isolation on local populations and note how these variables affect species arrangement. Specifically, she was interested in how human influenced changes such as fragmentation and localized climate change affect such aforementioned species.
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Vegetation phenology in response to climate change
Prebyl, T.J. and J. Hepinstall-Cymerman. Evaluation and interpretation of MODIS-derived forest phenology in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Remote Sensing of Environment. Accepted In Revision.
Current research indicates that warming global temperatures are capable of altering phenological cycles in deciduous forests. Potential climate induced changes to deciduous forest phenology are particularly important as they form the base for higher level trophic interactions and affect carbon and water cycles. The objective of Tom Prebyl's research was to evaluate the effectiveness of remotely-sensed MODIS imagery to monitor deciduous forest phenology and predict effects of temperature variability in the Southern Appalachians. He tested the ability of satellite data to predict phenological events by comparing to intensive field observations of canopy and understory spring greenup. Additionally, he utilized local temperature models and landscape level forest phenology data to test hypotheses regarding the relative influence of winter chilling, spring warming, and topographic variables on the timing spring leaf emergence. His study furthered knowledge on the interpretation of satellite-based phenology in mountainous regions where such information was historically lacking. Results from this study will inform companion studies on black-throated blue warbler demography in the southern Appalachians and will improve understanding of how climate change may impact this ecosystem in the future.